Is Tanzania becoming a dictatorship?
Its time peel back Mama Samia's mask...
Mama Samia?
When Samia Suluhu Hassan became president in 2021 everyone was very excited. Tanzania’s previous president, John Magufuli, left a mixed legacy. Opposition rallies were banned. Critics of the government were found beaten and bleeding after mysterious kidnappings.
After a harsh father, it was time for a kind mother; ‘Mama Samia’, the ‘suluhu’ (meaning solution in Swahili) to the country’s problems.
Western donors fell over each other to congratulate the nation’s first female president. They looked away in embarrassment when Mama Samia compared female footballers to men. They argued the slow pace of reforms was due to challenges in the ruling party. Everyone forgot Mama Samia had been part of Magufuli’s government. She had been involved in everything that happened before.
Even now many people are reluctant to hold her responsible for the rise in attacks against the government’s critics. News organizations have been shut down for the slightest things. Reforms have ground to a halt. It feels like Tanzania is back on the road to repression.
By relying on her male ministers to act for her, Mama Samia has tried to maintain her motherly image despite the brutal actions of her government. But its time to look behind the maternal mask, and ask, is Tanzania becoming a dictatorship?
Dr. Cassypool goes on holiday
One way to understand Tanzania is through an outsider. Dr. Cassypool (not a doctor in any way), is a big-mouthed Kenyan influencer and gospel singer. Cassypool has always been interested in politics. He even flirted with the idea of running for president. But recently he has focused on his career as a commentator.
He supported Kenya’s President Ruto during the finance bill protests despite police shootings. More recently he argued Kenya’s young women were too politically conscious. People wondered if he was hoping for some money from the government.
Then in September, Dr. Cassypool suddenly announced he was going on holiday to Tanzania. Out of the blue, he was absolutely crazy about Mama Samia. Gosh she was amazing! He recorded a new song about her achievements. He screamed about the lack of traffic congestion. He showcased the new port in Dar es Salaam. Dr. Cassypool had finally found his political patron.
And although his content was government propaganda, there was some truth to his observations. Tanzania’s economy has boomed under Mama Samia. In 2021 GDP was roughly $70 billion, three years later it had risen to $85 billion.
One reason for growth has been a focus on massive projects. The port in Dar es Salaam is being developed by a Dubai-based company which will run the port for the next 30 years and take its profits. When opposition activists tried to organise a protest over the plans, the government denied them permission. But in Tanzania’s northern region, Mama Samia has a plan with a much worse trade-off.
The end of a people?
On October 14th, government officials attended a memorial service for Julius Nyerere, Tanzania’s founding father. The President didn’t speak, but her Vice President addressed the nation from the pulpit. His message: ‘pray for peace, so our nation can develop’. Sitting in a church east of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, it was clear to everyone what he was referencing.
The government is locked in a struggle with Maasai communities in the north of Tanzania. The plan is to dramatically expand the land under conservation. The drive to expand is financial. Over 700,000 tourists visit the region each year. Investors from China and UAE have spent millions building private lodges, some of them for wealthy foreigners interested in hunting.
Unfortunately, people happen to live on a lot of this land and don’t want to leave it. The Maasai herd cattle on the edge of conservation areas. Mama Samia’s solution has been to construct new villages for the inconvenient Maasai and encourage ‘voluntary’ resettlement.
In reality, a brutal campaign of intimidation has left many of these communities living in fear but determined to stay put. Government rangers beat locals who cannot produce an ‘ID’ pass. Hospitals and schools have been shut down. Over 100,000 Maasai were removed from the electoral register, denying them the right to vote. The only way out was for communities to move hundreds of kilometres to a new, custom-built town, with land unsuitable for cattle herding.
In August thousands of protesters blocked major roads in the region, carrying leaves and branches as a sign of peace. ‘Ardhi yetu, urithi wetu’ (Our land, our heritage) was written on their signs.
The strangest part of the August protests was how they were resolved. A court ruled that the government must temporarily halt its plans. But not because of the protesters. Locals believe the government paid a lawyer to file an injunction against itself.
At first, that might seem like a strange thing to do. But this allowed Mama Samia to pause the project in the face of international criticism. Two months later, things began moving forward again.
The government approached the Maasai protests by controlling the narrative. The protesters argued they were being peaceful and defending their heritage. In response the Vice President called for ‘peace for development’ at the memorial service. The same day a government newspaper argued the Ngorongoro relocation was exactly what Julius Nyerere would have wanted. It was in line with the nation’s heritage.
As on so many controversial issues, Mama Samia was silent as the wheels of her government began to turn.
Control Everything
If there is one mantra that defines Tanzania’s current government, it is ‘control everything’. This applies not just to the narrative around controversial issues, but even opposition to them. At Ngorongoro, it likely paid a lawyer to file an injunction against itself. Its this desire to control opposition, which has led to a return to political violence.
Since coming to power, Mama Samia has been in negotiations with the largest opposition party (CHADEMA) about changing laws made under Magufuli. She casts herself as the great unifier. A person who brings all parties together, but only on her terms. In 2023 she unbanned political rallies at a press conference at State house.
Since then, things have started to spiral out of control. CHADEMA has begun a grassroots campaign for a new constitution. Negotiations over reform have broken down. In response, Mama Samia has brought back the ‘bad boys’ from Magufuli’s cabinet. And opposition activists have started going missing…
In September, Ali Kibao, a senior member of CHADEMA, was dragged off a bus, beaten and had acid poured on his face. His lifeless body was found the next day. Many other CHADEMA members have been abducted. Some have still not been found.
In response to the violence, the opposition organised a peace rally, which Mama Samia banned (ironically) as a ‘threat to law and order’. Only she was allowed to condemn the murder of Kibao.
The level of control she demands over daily life in Tanzania has escalated in the run up to elections. An artist who burned a picture of her was jailed for 2 years. A news agency who featured a simple cartoon showing her reacting with sadness to news of political violence, had their offices shut down.
Mama Samia’s idea of ‘unity’ is not one where diversity or disagreement flourish. It’s a world where she controls both sides of the argument, where real opposition does not exist.
Just like Ruto?
Stories of abductions and killings, whilst a government tries to push forward unpopular decisions… these patterns are familiar to east Africans. They match the violence and intimidation carried out under William Ruto in Kenya. Deaths and disappearances which no one has been held accountable for.
Its no coincidence Ruto’s loud-mouthed praise-singer, Dr. Cassypool, has found a friend in Mama Samia. Tanzania’s president likes to surround herself with talkative men who do her dirty work. Then she dons the guise of a national mother.
But the ruthless way she polices this image, suggests it is more fragile than you might think. It seems like the illusion of ‘Mama Samia’ can only be maintained by descent into dictatorship.
Sources
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr542l0j540o
https://issafrica.org/iss-today/why-is-samia-struggling-to-sustain-reforms-in-tanzania
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/maasai-land-rights-tanzania
https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/oped/are-we-finally-seeing-the-authentic-samia--4178692