Wagner's defeat in Mali: Or How the Russia Ukraine War Spread to Africa
At least a hundred Russian mercenaries were ended or captured. Wagner’s worst defeat in Africa, ever.
Ukraine and Azawad Unite
In the Sahara Desert Tuareg rebels pose for a picture with two flags. One the nation of Azawad, an unrecognised Berber state in northern Mali. The second, is the Ukrainian flag. Hours earlier, the Azawad rebels launched a devastating ambush against a combined Russian-Malian force. Limping back to base, the Wagner military column was attacked a second time by Islamist rebels. At least a hundred Russian mercenaries were ended or captured. Wagner’s worst defeat in Africa, ever.
As news hit the headlines, the Ukrainian government claimed to have given the rebels intel on Russian movements. And then the flag picture was shared. It was a massive propaganda boost for Ukraine. But it was also the culmination of a long-term strategy. Before getting involved in Mali, Ukrainian special forces began operations in nearby Sudan.
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Now Russia and her African allies may be nervously wondering about Ukrainian interference in Burkina Faso, Niger and Central African Republic. But why has the Russia Ukraine conflict spilled over into Africa? And what does it mean for stability on the continent?
Grain and Votes
Africa has been involved in the Russia Ukraine war from its outset.
Do you remember media headlines saying the conflict would lead to starvation in Africa? The World Food Programme desperately needed grain from Russia and Ukraine for famine relief. Well, things turned out to be a bit more complex.
Only 10% of Ukrainian grain went to sub-Saharan Africa before the war. In 2024 it had dropped to 3%. The grain gap has been filled by Russia whose wheat production has increased despite the conflict. Now free grain delivery to Zimbabwe and Burkina Faso is part of Russia’s soft power initiative.
This has helped Russia in the United Nations, where African countries receiving Russia grain have abstained or voted against condemning the invasion of Ukraine.
‘Food is our silent weapon’ - Dmitry Medvedev
When a grain corridor was opened in Ukraine, 90% of exports remained in Europe, lowering wheat prices in Poland and angering local farmers.
The war has had a big impact on food production. But it’s not led to a global shortage. Its enabled Russia to dominate the African grain market. A Russia official (Dmitry Medvedev) would describe it as his country’s ‘silent weapon’.
Sudan Special Forces
Russia’s big wins in Africa haven’t escaped the notice of Ukraine and its allies. Although Zelensky has found himself on the back foot, he has quietly begun his own counteroffensive.
Things were tame to start out with. Ukraine bought ammunition from Sudan to use against Russia. The Sudanese government tread a fine line. At the same time their were selling guns to Ukraine, Wagner was transporting Sudanese gold across the desert in pickup trucks to Central African Republic.
But since the outbreak of Sudan’s Civil War in 2023, the situation has shifted again. Ukraine has stepped up its presence in Sudan. Ukrainian Special Forces have been filmed fighting with government forces against the rebels. Their night vision and tactical experience made them a deadly foe. They also brought explosive drones from the Russia front. Now they were swooping down to explode on rebel Toyotas.
Videos of the operations were released in the western press. There was a big propaganda element to Ukraine’s actions in Sudan. Its doubtful a few drones and Spec Ops could turn the tide in a war being fought by tens of thousands.
But it was also not a big issue for Russia. Since the war, Wagner involvement in Sudan has decreased. In June 2024 Putin shifted his support away from rebels to the government, agreeing a deal to sell weapons to Sudan in exchange for a port on the Red Sea.
If Ukraine wanted to fight Russia in Africa, it had picked the wrong country. Putin and Zelensky had ended up… on the same side.
Wagner’s Mali Disaster
Since a military coup in 2021, Mali’s leader Assimi Goïta has turned away from the West and towards Russia. French military have withdrawn, and Wagner have arrived.
Despite western accusations of brutality, Wagner has been something of a success in Mali. In the south and centre of the country they have brought most territory back under government control.
In the north progress has been slower. For decades Tuareg Azawad separatists and Islamist groups have fought to control these desert regions. In 2024, Wagner and Malian forces started a gruelling campaign to secure control of the major northern settlements. By June they had succeeded. Most cities and large towns were government controlled.
But the Russia mercenaries and African soldiers, quickly became victims of their own success. The Islamists and Tuareg Azawad formed an alliance against their new common enemy.
In July, Wagner and the Malian army began a fated march to capture the last town under rebel control: Tin Zaouaten on the Algerian border.
On the 23rd a column of 12 vehicles arrived in Boughessa, about 50 kilometres from Tin Zaoutine. The group met no resistance but saw signs the Tuareg Azawad were mobilising. They relayed a call for help and advanced cautiously along the desert road. Suddenly one of the trucks exploded, injuring a Malian soldier. The road to Tin Zaoutine had been mined.
Halfway along the route, a desert sandstorm hit the column, lowering visibility and putting drone and helicopter support out of action. Then the Azawad fighters attacked. Gradually the Malian and Russian soldiers found themselves being pushed towards a narrow gorge, a certain death trap. But they were able to fight their way out of the situation and establish a temporary base 7 kilometres from Tin Zaoutine. During the night the sandstorm howled across the desert and both sides regrouped.
The next day, clear skies brought Russian drones and helicopters into the attack. A Mi-24 was seriously damaged by rebel fire and limped away from the battle before crash landing in government-controlled territory.
Gradually the military column realised it was fighting a combined rebel force of Islamist and Tuareg Azawad rebels. The decision was made for the entire column to withdraw to the safety of Kidal, about 150 kilometres south. But the retreat soon turned into a rout.
‘Coordination of militants was taken over by Western forces’ - Alexander Ivanov
Reinforcements sent to support the retreating soldiers walked straight into an ambush. Islamists and Azawad rebels attacked from both sides at once, overwhelming the Russian Malian soldiers, ending many, capturing many more and destroying 7 vehicles. Reportedly amongst the dead was a prominent Russian blogger with a telegram channel of over half a million followers.
Wagner had been overwhelmed, sucked into a trap, ambushed and destroyed. In ones and twos survivors limped back to Kidal. Captured soldiers were quickly exchanged. At least 50 Russian mercenaries were dead.
Desert warfare is unpredictable. But the firepower and tactics used by the rebels took Wagner and the Malian forces completely by surprise. The difference, according to the Ukrainian sources… was Ukraine. Photos appear to show Caucasian soldiers alongside rebels. A spokesman for Ukraine’s Intelligence Services said they had supported the rebel attack with information on Russian Movements. A Russian Mercenary trainer went further, accusing, France, America and Ukraine: ‘coordination of the militants was taken over by Western forces.’
Russia Ukraine War in Africa
Tensions over grain sales and votes in the UN grew into jostling in the Sudan. But now in Mali it has developed into a proxy war. The Russia Ukraine conflict is expanding, not because Ukraine is winning, but because it is beginning to cautiously eye an end to the war. In May Zelensky told the Pope he was continuously praying for peace. If Ukraine does eventually go to negotiate, it will be looking to put itself in as strong a position as possible. Threatening the stability of Russia’s allies in Africa is a useful bargaining chip.
Days after defeat at Tinzawaten, Burkinabe and Malian aircraft bombed the town, forcing civilians to flee their homes. Ukraine made no comment. For the Sahelian states, Ukraine has established itself as an enemy in their campaign to stabilise historically lawless regions.
Of course, funding rebel militia’s is a dangerous game. As the Americans discovered in Afghanistan, today’s Anti-Russian freedom fighter, may become tomorrow’s enemy number one.
Sources:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/food-silent-weapon-russias-gains-and-ukraines-losses
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/01/black-sea-grain-russia-ukraine-africa-hunger/
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/07/where-will-all-the-wagner-group-mercenaries-go-now.html
https://www.svoboda.org/a/afrikanskaya-lovushka-istoriya-razgroma-chvk-vagner-v-mali/33054040.html
https://www.newarab.com/analysis/why-are-ukrainian-special-forces-fighting-sudans-war
https://afrinz.ru/en/2024/07/somb-director-ivanov-western-forces-co-ordinated-militants-in-mali/