Who wants to assassinate Ibrahim Traore?

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Welcome to Burkina Faso. Sorry for the rush but we had to fly you in as fast as possible so the investigation could begin…

Ibrahim Traore, Africa’s youngest leader, came to power through a military coup in 2022. Cheering crowds greeted their new president, hoping he would be able to turn the tide against the Islamist insurgency in the north.

Since then, Traore, or ‘IB’ as his people call him, has launched a series of ambitious economic reforms. He’s also tried to mobilise the civilian population through village defence groups. He’s moved away from France and America and aligned himself with Russia and the military governments in neighbouring Mali and Niger.

Such massive changes have brought a lot of attention to the Traore government. In the past two years multiple coup attempts have been thwarted by loyalists. In January, the government claimed to have uncovered a bomb plot targeting Traore’s quarters. In May shots were heard around the presidential palace, although the gunman was later subdued. Media outlets supportive of the government claim 18 assassination attempts have been made so far.

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The situation is complex. It involves the army, civilians, rebels, and international politics. As an African political investigator, your assignment is to answer one question: who wants to assassinate Ibrahim Traore?

The Prime Minister

The best place to start your investigation is looking at the people around Traore. There are often tensions between the army and civilians sharing power after a coup. So perhaps someone in the government is plotting ‘IB’s’ downfall.

Prime Minister Kyélem de Tambèla is not one of them. He rose to fame as a lawyer and TV commentator critical of government corruption. He remains unwaveringly loyal to Traore as long as the government pursues policies in line with Thomas Sankara’s vision. “I have already said that Burkina Faso cannot be developed outside the path set by Thomas Sankara."

One of his first decisions in office was to lower the salary of the president and ministers. Since then, he has visited Russia and Iran to strengthen diplomatic ties. For the moment, the positive relationship between Traore and de Tambèla connects the civilian and military sides of government.

Journalists and Politicians (Two Barrys)

But there are some members of the political class who resent Traore’s rule. Since coming to power, ‘IB’ has put restrictions on local and international media organisations. This has had a big impact on journalists like Newton Ahmed Barry.

Newton has long been an advocate for free speech and democracy in Burkina Faso. He investigated the case of journalists murdered under the government of Blaise Compaore. He was responsible for overseeing the 2020 elections. Since the military coup, Newton has become a vocal critic of Traore’s decisions to ban media groups and delay elections.

For his trouble he has received numerous death threats online, eventually leading to his flight into exile in France.

Alpha Barry is another journalist, former politician, and critic of Traore who has also lost out under the new government. He used to run the local station Radio Omega before it was suspended for airing an interview critical of the Nigerien authorities. He too has fled into exile.

In July Traore’s defence minister claimed both Alpha Barry and Newton Ahmed Barry had been part of a planned coup to seize control of the country through Islamist rebels. In November their bank accounts were on a list of 113 frozen for ‘financing terrorism’.

Both Barrys have ties to the French government through their work with Radio France International. But it’s unlikely they have made any connections with the Islamists in the north. Their enthusiasm for a free independent press, and democratic elections sets them at odds with JNIM who want to introduce Sharia Law. The two journalists have been disenfranchised by the Traore government. But with local media now under government control, they pose little threat.

Factions in the Military

Traore’s role model, Thomas Sankara, was assassinated by his comrades in the military, led by a once-close friend: Blaise Compaore. In recent months the biggest threat to ‘IB’ has come from factions in the army.

One headache for Traore has been how to deal with Paul-Henri Damiba. In 2022, Traore helped Colonel Damiba seize power in a military coup. Eight months later Traore launched his own coup deposing his colleague.

At first the relationship was amicable. Damiba said he would resign on condition he and his allies were protected. Traore agreed and the colonel went into exile in neighbouring Togo. Whether this was part of an agreed plan remains unclear. Later some officers were arrested for helping him leave the country.

Since then, Damiba has bided his time until in July 2024 a particularly nasty attack by the Islamists left Traore in a vulnerable position. Then Damiba published an open letter to Traore criticizing his leadership and tactics. Traore’s government pushed back by accusing Damiba of planning another coup attempt with factions within the military and Islamist rebels. Several high-ranking military officers were arrested or had their assets frozen.

Togo

Since Damiba is currently in exile in Togo, it would be tempting to assume the Togolese government is a major opponent of Traore. Togo is part of ECOWAS, the economic community Burkina Faso has withdrawn from because of its ties to France. But both countries are reliant on each other as trading partners. For this reason, Traore continues to describe his relationship with Togo as one of ‘fraternity and solidarity’. Three months after Damiba penned his critical letter, Burkinabe and Togolese officials signed a new tax agreement.

Ghana and friends?

The same cannot be said of Ghana which has become a major thorn in Traore’s side. In September Burkina Faso accused Ghana of helping to sponsor the supposed terrorist-coup masterminded by Colonel Damiba.

Many western news outlets reported this accusation with some scepticism. But then, a month later, Reuters confirmed that Islamist insurgents were being allowed to use Ghana’s northern border to rest and recover during fighting with the Burkinabe military. Insurgents bought fuel, visited hospitals, and even recruited locals to go fight over the border.

Some people wondered if Ghana was just reluctant to address the issue, or if it was turning a blind eye on purpose. Ghana has close ties to America, whilst Burkina Faso has moved towards the Russian sphere.

With the revelations from Ghana, its worth considering the arguments made by Traore about Cote D’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Benin. He has also accused these countries of working with France to undermine stability in the country.

The Western Powers

Western powers like France and America have watched with concern as Burkina Faso has moved out of their sphere of influence. Thomas Sankara’s assassination in 1987 was rumoured to be supported by France. Would the French government act like this again?

Indisputable evidence connecting France to the attempted coups is hard to come by. Foreign powers will often work through a disgruntled military officer or ambitious warlord, rather than commit their own agents to a plot.

However, there is the case of four ‘IT workers’ sent by France to work with the Burkinabe government. They were arrested in December 2023 and police found sensitive information about Burkina Faso and contact details on their work phones. Officially, these phones were supposed to be wiped clean on arrival.

Although France insists these men were not spies and they simply made some ’errors’, they continue to be held in prison on Ouagadougou.

The USA for its part, halted $160 million worth of aid after the first military coup in 2022. Its Voice of America outlet often publishes articles critical of Traore’s government.

Islamist Insurgents

Traore’s biggest problem, his enemy number one, are the Islamist militants which threaten daily life in the north and east of the country. The scourge of extremism spread into Burkina Faso from Mali and North Africa in the 2010s. The French peace-keeping mission failed to resolve the problem, one of the reasons many Burkinabes now look to Russia for support in their war.

JNIM is connected to Al-Qadea but also profits from cross-border criminal networks. Recruiters draw on resentment in the north of the country, where ethnic Fulani people have been marginalised. Little economic development takes place meaning joining a local militia is one of the few viable ways to earn a living.

Traore sees his economic development projects as part of the war effort. Factories and tractors are as important as guns in combating jihadist propaganda.

The government is quick to see other threats hiding behind the Islamist enemy. Jealous neighbours, aggressive superpowers, treasonous factions in the army, even pro-democracy journalists. All of them are trying to make the insurgency worse according to Traore’s government. And although some of this is surely wartime propaganda, there is evidence that West Africa, and the West, is not as unified in its opposition to insurgents as one might expect.

So, its time to conclude your investigation and submit your report. Who do you think wants to assassinate Ibrahim Traore?

Key Sources:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-faso-junta-speaks-coup-plot-after-criticism-over-jihadi-massacre-2024-09-24/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/21/is-burkina-faso-on-the-cusp-of-another-coup

https://www.africanews.com/2024/01/19/burkina-faso-fresh-coup-attempt-thwarted-authorities//

https://faso7.com/2024/09/23/burkina-faso-sandaogo-damiba-djibrill-bassole-alpha-barry-newton-ahmed-barry-cites-dans-un-projet-de-destabilisation/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-63111763

https://www.voanews.com/a/burkina-freezes-assets-of-more-than-100-people-over-financing-of-terrorism-/7872143.html

https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ASB-38-EN.pdf

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1589598/politique/damiba-a-ibrahim-traore-je-ne-peux-pas-garder-le-silence-face-aux-exactions-contre-les-civils/

https://amnewsworld.com/2024/10/15/18th-assassination-attempt-on-burkina-fasos-president-traore-fails/